A crossroad

Last week I read the development proposal from McKee, and as said in the previous post I was very skeptical of his plan. During my Friday meeting with Mark (thesis advisor) the problems I had with his proposal (and I would imagine the problems he will face) all center on population, or a lack of it.

The development proposal estimates the area will generate the following:

10,000 Residential units,

-7,200 multi family units
-1,800 single family homes

This equates to roughly 29,500 people based on Census data for persons per dwelling unit.

St. Louis is poised to increase in population for the first time in 60 years based off of the current census estimates. That increase from 2000-2008 was less than 6500 people. Of those 6500 people a majority are the result of Balkan conflict and most, if not all are locating themselves in South City.

What leads McKee to believe his development will spur an influx of people that has not been seen in St. Louis since the 1920's? Where are these people coming from? Why does he think they will locate in the Northside?



Other Estimates they offer the development will yield:

4,500,000 sq ft of Commercial Space

1,000,000 sq ft. of Retail Space

Question: Where are the jobs coming from?




These issues have forced me to think about my project in a much different way than I had before. The sheer volume of population and jobs make McKee's proposal essentially a house of cards. Assuming he does get the TIF, the only real benefit the neighborhood might experience is new infrastructure- the ability to grow in the future.
Now this is no small matter, this is a great opportunity, but it is important I think to take a step back for a second. Why aren't people racing to get into this area? Land is cheap, redevelopment loans are fairly easy to come by, close to downtown, this area should be hopping. But its not. Its because of the stigma of the northside neighborhood that the vacancy still exists. Crime is high, likely because of the haven abandoned structures and large spanses of open land offer to criminals.

It is extremely difficult to change people's perceptions of a place, especially a place that has seen disinvestment and abandonment for the past 80+ years. My new focus will be just that. How do you design for safety in order to take advantage of all of the other good things about the site area? How can this design be flexible enough to allow for connectivity if/when surrounding areas of the site are deemed safe enough to develop? This is my new focus.

Deliverables for Friday

-A density map that will allow me to visually quantify the housing stock quality and area

-Several maps that start to look at securing the neighborhood

-Research on securing residential areas and designing for high crime areas.